May 25, 2019
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‘Secret voters’ in the last US election cast ballots for politicians they publicly opposed
Ivy-league researchers say secrecy played a role in the 2016 election in at least one definitive way and it doesn't necessarily have to do with the actions of candidates.
According to a new study from Columbia University that surveyed 1,000 voters, people who cast their ballots for President Donald Trump in a 2016 race against candidate Hilary Clinton were twice as likely to keep their choice 'secret.'
The study, titled 'Motivated Secrecy: Politics, Relationships, and Regrets,' found that of the respondents, 53 per cent who kept their ballots hidden from friends and relatives voted for Trump while 27 per cent voted for Clinton.
One of the driving factors behind the secrecy of Trump voters' decision, say authors Michael Slepian, Rachel McDonald, Jessica Salerno, and Katharine Greenaway, was their reputation.
'Because concern with one’s reputation is a fundamental social motive, people might worry that revealing undesired behaviors could damage their reputation in their own eyes or the eyes of others,' reads the study. Specifically, as Slepian told Yahoo News: 'Trump voters were more concerned about their reputation than Clinton supporters.'
Before and during the campaign, Trump was often noted for his brash and sometimes offensive actions, which included mocking a disabled reporter and bragging about how he was allowed to grab models 'by the p****' in taped audio with television host, Billy Bush. To avoid being associated with those statements and actions among their peers, researchers say some voters chose to keep their political preference hidden.
The likelihood of whether someone was more likely to secretly vote for Trump also correlated to where they sat on the political spectrum, say researchers. Those voters who identified as more conservative were more likely to be open in their support while 'moderates' tended to hide the decision.
'The more conservative our participants, the less they regretted keeping their vote secret. Perhaps conservative participants were satisfied with their vote, given the outcome of the election,' the authors said.
According to the study, reputation was not the only motivator behind the disparity in 'secret' votes, however. Another driving factor is what researchers referred to as 'social harmony.' Respondents in the analysis also showed evidence that they had withheld information on which candidate they voted for in an attempt to avoid confrontation with others who may not have shared the same views.
'People might anticipate that being honest about their preferences, feelings, or behavior with a close other could cause tension if it conflicts with the other’s value system. That is, people might think they are doing the other person a service by not being forthright,' according to the report.
'People generally seek to avoid conflict. Secret keepers might be trying to avoid the aggression and unpleasantness that results from discussing topics with people who have different attitudes,' it continued.
This seems to mirror a study conducted by Pew Research in 2018 that showed respondents felt it was more 'stressful' to discuss politics with people they disagreed with. That study also shows that the feeling resonated most prominently with Democrats, 57 per cent of which characterized discussing politics with people that have disparate views as 'frustrating' and 'stressful.' That figure was up 45 per cent compared to two years prior to the study.
Among other things, researchers say their most recent analysis could help to explain a disconnect between polls leading up to the election and the actual results. Polling just prior to the election had Clinton's chances of winning at 95 per cent.
If sentiments are similar to 2016, pollsters say that Trump's support may be similarly underestimated, especially when it comes to how the President is stacking up against Democratic Candidate and former Vice President, Joe Biden, who is outpacing Trump in some early polling.
Extracted from: www.dailymail.co.uk
